Russian experts predict three major prospects for the situation in Syria: the Russian army cannot attack Turkish military aircraft

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According to Russia ’s Viewpoint report on the 3rd, the Turkish military announced that Idlib, closed in Syria, shot down a Syrian government Su-24 bomber, and Syria destroyed a Turkish-made drone. Russian media said that the battle around Idlib may continue, and there are opinions that the Syrian Air Force and Air Defense Forces may receive Russian assistance. After the Syrian government announced the closure of Idlib's airspace and warned that all invading aircraft would be regarded as hostile targets and were shot backward, Syrian government forces shot down a Turkish-made non-Turkish militant belonging to pro-Turkish militants near Sarahci Man is flying the plane. That night, Major General Oleg Zhulavlev, the head of the Russian Reconciliation Center of the Syrian warring parties, said that Russia could not guarantee the Turkish Air Force ’s flight safety in Syrian airspace. Turkish Defense Minister Ajar has previously officially announced that the Turkish Army will launch a "Spring Shield" military operation in Idlib province from February 27. In particular, Turkey claims to have shot down eight Syrian Air Force helicopters. Later, the Syrian government acknowledged that Turkey had shot down two Syrian Su-24 bombers in the Idlib downgrade zone. The Turkish Ministry of Defense said two military aircraft were trying to attack Turkish fighter jets. In addition, Turkey announced the destruction of three Syrian air defense systems, including a system that shot down Turkish drones. Alexander Luzon, a former deputy commander of the Russian Army's air defense forces, said Syria's air defense system seemed very strong, and Russia could help Syria by deploying an air defense system in Syria. The easiest way is to use the S-300V4 system. The missile flew silently and could not be detected. Experts explained that, unlike the S-400 system, the S-300V4 system may not communicate with the guidance station. Russia's possible participation in Operation Idlib has caused heated discussions among experts. Russian experts analyzed the three most unfavorable prospects that could trigger a war in Syria: First, Syrian government forces shot down Turkish fighters, providing a new reason for Erdogan to fight the Assad government. Second, Russian missiles shot down Turkish fighters, giving Ankara a chance to announce that Russia is launching a direct attack. Third, Turkey shot down Russian air and space fighters, similar to the previous Su-24 incident. Andrei chuprikin, a senior teacher at the eastern institute of Russia high economic school, predicts that if Syrian government forces shoot down a Turkish military aircraft, Turkey may increase rocket attacks and no one The frequency of flying the aircraft responded. He believes that in this case, Russia will stay out of the way, "because Syria is a sovereign state and has full sovereignty over its territory and airspace." Chuprikin said Russia's task is to minimize the consequences of the incident, mainly through contacts between Moscow and Ankara, including contacts at the presidential level. Therefore, unless Syria's shooting down of Turkish military aircraft does not trigger further conflict, there is no reason for Syria to shoot down Turkish military aircraft. After all, the more planes shot down, the less likely a ceasefire will be reached. Experts said that the second scenario-Russia shooting down Turkish military aircraft is unrealistic. Because Turkey can shoot down Turkish military aircraft only when Turkey tries to attack Russian military bases or launch aerial hostilities against Russian warplanes. Importantly, Turkish Defense Minister Akar said the day before yesterday that Ankara does not want armed confrontation with the Russian army. Turkish President Erdogan also said earlier, "We have no problems in Syria with Russia and Iran, and our target is neither Russia nor Iran." Semenov, director of the Islamic Research Center of the Russian Institute for Innovation and Development ( Semenoff said that neither Moscow nor Ankara would admit if Russia shot down Turkish aircraft because no one wanted to make the situation worse. If one aircraft is shot down by another, responsibility may be borne by Syrian government forces. But they will do their best to avoid such incidents. If this happens, it is definitely not intentional. Semenov said that Russian space forces are unlikely to appear in areas of Turkish military attack in the near future, at least until Russian President Putin meets Erdogan. Chupkin emphasized that the third scenario was the most unfavourable, namely that Turkey shot down Russian military aircraft. (Chuprikin) predicts that if Syrian government forces shoot down a Turkish military aircraft, Turkey may increase the frequency of rocket attacks and unmanned aerial vehicles in response. He believes that in this case, Russia will stay out of the way, "because Syria is a sovereign state and has full sovereignty over its territory and airspace." Chuprikin said Russia's task is to minimize the consequences of the incident, mainly through contacts between Moscow and Ankara, including contacts at the presidential level. Therefore, unless Syria's shooting down of Turkish military aircraft does not trigger further conflict, there is no reason for Syria to shoot down Turkish military aircraft. After all, the more planes shot down, the less likely a ceasefire will be reached. Experts said that the second scenario-Russia shooting down Turkish military aircraft is unrealistic. Because Turkey can shoot down Turkish military aircraft only when Turkey tries to attack Russian military bases or launch aerial hostilities against Russian warplanes. Importantly, Turkish Defense Minister Akar said the day before yesterday that Ankara does not want armed confrontation with the Russian army. Turkish President Erdogan also said earlier, "We have no problems in Syria with Russia and Iran, and our target is neither Russia nor Iran." Semenov, director of the Islamic Research Center of the Russian Institute for Innovation and Development ( Semenoff said that neither Moscow nor Ankara would admit if Russia shot down Turkish aircraft because no one wanted to make the situation worse. If one aircraft is shot down by another, responsibility may be borne by Syrian government forces. But they will do their best to avoid such incidents. If this happens, it is definitely not intentional. Semenov said that Russian space forces are unlikely to appear in areas of Turkish military attack in the near future, at least until Russian President Putin meets Erdogan. Chupkin emphasized that the third scenario was the most unfavourable, namely that Turkey shot down Russian military aircraft. (Chuprikin) predicts that if Syrian government forces shoot down a Turkish military aircraft, Turkey may increase the frequency of rocket attacks and unmanned aerial vehicles in response. He believes that in this case, Russia will stay out of the way, "because Syria is a sovereign state and has full sovereignty over its territory and airspace." Chuprikin said Russia's task is to minimize the consequences of the incident, mainly through contacts between Moscow and Ankara, including contacts at the presidential level. Therefore, unless Syria's shooting down of Turkish military aircraft does not trigger further conflict, there is no reason for Syria to shoot down Turkish military aircraft. After all, the more planes shot down, the less likely a ceasefire will be reached. Experts said that the second scenario-Russia shooting down Turkish military aircraft is unrealistic. Because Turkey can shoot down Turkish military aircraft only when Turkey tries to attack Russian military bases or launch aerial hostilities against Russian warplanes. Importantly, Turkish Defense Minister Akar said the day before yesterday that Ankara does not want armed confrontation with the Russian army. Turkish President Erdogan also said earlier, "We have no problems in Syria with Russia and Iran, and our target is neither Russia nor Iran." Semenov, director of the Islamic Research Center of the Russian Institute for Innovation and Development ( Semenoff said that neither Moscow nor Ankara would admit if Russia shot down Turkish aircraft because no one wanted to make the situation worse. If one aircraft is shot down by another, responsibility may be borne by Syrian government forces. But they will do their best to avoid such incidents. If this happens, it is definitely not intentional. Semenov said that Russian space forces are unlikely to appear in areas of Turkish military attack in the near future, at least until Russian President Putin meets Erdogan. Chupkin emphasized that the third scenario was the most unfavourable, namely that Turkey shot down Russian military aircraft.

If something similar happened in Turkey's downing of a Russian Su-24 bomber on the Turkish-Syrian border, plus all the facts and spears accumulated during this period, relations between the two countries would return to the state of 2015-2016. Semenov said that if Turkey shoots down Russian military aircraft, Ankara must take responsibility because Turkish-backed Syrian armed groups have no aircraft. At the same time, however, experts believe that such incidents are unlikely to trigger an open confrontation between Moscow and Ankara, as it is not in the interests of both countries.