A plan to slow the war? U.S. lays three foreshadowings in Afghanistan before signing peace agreement with Taliban

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The longest war in American history seems to end on February 29. On the same day, the United States and the Taliban signed a "peace agreement" in Doha, Qatar. Some comments and analysis suggest that this agreement means that the United States acknowledges the reality that the Taliban controls most of Afghanistan and will withdraw its troops and hand Afghanistan over to the Taliban. I'm afraid the idea is superficial. If you think that the United States will happily withdraw more than 14,000 U.S. troops from Afghanistan, then this is only a superficial understanding. With Afghanistan investing more than $ 1 trillion and nearly 2,500 military personnel killed, the White House and the Pentagon cannot explain this internally if the hugely costly United States eventually "visits" Afghanistan. The "September 11th Incident" led to a large-scale invasion of Afghanistan by the U.S. military and "have earned a reputation for itself." In the name of "counter-terrorism", the U.S. military quickly expelled the Taliban from several major cities in Afghanistan. However, despite the Taliban's nominal loss of power, they split into several parts and adopted a strategy of surrounding the city from the countryside. They retreated to the countryside and began guerrilla warfare in the mountains. The U.S. military launched several large-scale siege and, despite many victories, failed to eradicate the problem. The Taliban cannot be completely defeated, and there are some side effects. Some terrorist groups, drug trafficking groups and others have been following war-torn Afghanistan, and the Islamic State has even taken advantage of it. The situation is getting more complicated. However, Kabul authorities and Afghan security forces were unable to control the venue with the support of the United States. A 2016 report from the Pentagon showed that without US military support, timid Afghan security forces could be defeated by the Taliban within three days. After the end of 2009, Obama approved the first surge in Afghanistan, mainly to consolidate Afghanistan's pro-US regime and help it fight terrorism and insurgency. In particular, the return of the Taliban and the infiltration of ISIS in Iraq and Sharm must be resisted. By sending more troops to Afghanistan, although the United States is getting deeper in this war, it also sends a strong military signal that the United States will not give up its military presence in this critical area. If we completely abandon Afghanistan, we will lose the key to entering and controlling Central Asia. Afghanistan is a springboard, and the United States' intention is to achieve a permanent military presence in Central Asia. The United States has never given up on this plan since the Cold War. After Trump was elected president of the United States, he has particularly strengthened his anti-terrorism force in the direction of Central Asia. The U.S. military stationed in Afghanistan refers to Central Asia. Its main purpose is to limit the two main "strategic competitors". After the U.S. military stationed in Afghanistan, The strategic space of these two powers will be squeezed for a day. At the end of January 2018, Trump's first "State of the Union" theme was "Building a Safe, Strong and Proud United States," claiming that the two major powers challenged US interests, economies, and values. Trump regards "competition among big nations" as God's trump card, how can he tolerate the loss of Afghanistan? How can we tolerate the loss of control of the two great powers? Afghanistan is indeed a "deep pit", but it is not easy for the United States to get out of this pit completely, at least Washington will not be willing to give up the previous "sunk costs". Therefore, the United States' foresight on Afghanistan may be as follows: 1. Withdraw most of the US military one by one, but do not abandon several important military bases in Afghanistan. This was tacitly acknowledged by the Taliban. After all, the purpose of the United States invading Afghanistan in 2001 in the name of "counter-terrorism" was not simple. Afghanistan's geographical location is so important that the United States absolutely does not want to see the "land silk road" of major East Asian countries unobstructed and will try its best to create obstacles. I'm afraid the Taliban also know that it is unrealistic to stop the United States from leaving a soldier in Afghanistan. The biggest concession the United States can win at this stage is victory. 2. The Taliban can share power and have legitimacy, but they must exercise restraint. The Taliban's demands are nothing more than being a legitimate participant in the Afghan regime and being able to share power in Kabul. Of course, the Taliban has the ambition to seize most or all of its power, which is undeniable. But the Taliban wants more international recognition, so I Withdraw most of the U.S. troops one by one, but don't give up on several important military bases in Afghanistan. This was tacitly acknowledged by the Taliban. After all, the purpose of the United States invading Afghanistan in 2001 in the name of "counter-terrorism" was not simple. Afghanistan's geographical location is so important that the United States absolutely does not want to see the "land silk road" of major East Asian countries unobstructed and will try its best to create obstacles. I'm afraid the Taliban also know that it is unrealistic to stop the United States from leaving a soldier in Afghanistan. The biggest concession the United States can win at this stage is victory. 2. The Taliban can share power and have legitimacy, but they must exercise restraint. The Taliban's demands are nothing more than being a legitimate participant in the Afghan regime and being able to share power in Kabul. Of course, the Taliban has the ambition to seize most or all of its power, which is undeniable. But the Taliban wants more international recognition, so I Withdraw most of the U.S. troops one by one, but don't give up on several important military bases in Afghanistan. This was tacitly acknowledged by the Taliban. After all, the purpose of the United States invading Afghanistan in 2001 in the name of "counter-terrorism" was not simple. Afghanistan's geographical location is so important that the United States absolutely does not want to see the "land silk road" of major East Asian countries unobstructed and will try its best to create obstacles. I'm afraid the Taliban also know that it is unrealistic to stop the United States from leaving a soldier in Afghanistan. The biggest concession the United States can win at this stage is victory. 2. The Taliban can share power and have legitimacy, but they must exercise restraint. The Taliban's demands are nothing more than being a legitimate participant in the Afghan regime and being able to share power in Kabul. Of course, the Taliban has the ambition to seize most or all of its power, which is undeniable. But the Taliban wants more international recognition, so I

This determines that violence cannot be used directly and needs to be implemented gradually. 3. The United States needs to readjust the distribution of its military, so reaching a "peace agreement" with the Taliban may be a delaying tactic. From overthrowing the Taliban regime to falling into a long tug-of-war, both George Bush and Barack Obama have tried to rebuild their security. Many efforts have failed to establish the "New Afghanistan" of the United States. Now that Trump has no extra money, there are ways to lead a poor life. This may be the only option to stop fighting in Afghanistan and mobilize his forces, first in the tense western Pacific. However, it is almost certain that the United States will not stand idly by when the pro-American Kabul regime is wiped out by the Taliban. In the "Peace Agreement" signed on March 1, the Taliban promised not to make Afghanistan a paradise for terrorists, and the "reward" of the United States was to withdraw more than 4,000 soldiers in 135 days. If the two sides can implement the agreement at the same time, foreign troops will withdraw from Afghanistan within 14 months. It can be said that from now on, Afghanistan has entered a delicate stage. Both the White House and the Taliban shook hands and clenched their arms. No one gave up their calculations. Both sides are waiting for opportunities. Despite some advantages, Trump may not win the next four-year term. If a new president enters the White House, there will inevitably be some adjustments to the Afghanistan issue, and the current situation will not be fully accepted. US foreign policy is "policy changes with people", which is completely normal. By then, who can determine the direction of the situation in Afghanistan? But for the people, even short-lived peace is better than war. Enjoy yourself, who knows what's ahead. Being creative is not easy, thank you for your encouragement!

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