Panic in Europe and the United States has fallen by more than 10%. How about a shares on Monday? The latest explanation from the securities company came: not bad debts, not pessimism! Trump is also anxious: the Fed should lower interest rates

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Chinese funds reported that Taylor suddenly turned to the day when A shares opened on Monday. After a week of sharp declines in global stock markets, about 160 million shareholders are eager to know how A shares will move on Monday. The fund manager has found the opinions of many securities analysts and hopes to help everyone's investment. Looking back at the week of global stock market sprawl, the US and European stock markets fell by more than 10% each week. The new coronary pneumonia epidemic spread overseas, leaving investors pessimistic about the global economic outlook in 2020, and the global stock market was severely impacted. The three major U.S. stock indexes each fell more than 10% this week. Among them, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 1,000 points in two trading days. Roughly speaking, from the high point of February 12 to the close of Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4142 points, a decline of 14%, basically erasing the price since 2019 in less than two weeks. Gains. Over the past week, the European Stoke 50 Index fell more than 12%, the London Stock Market's Financial Times 0 shares average price index fell more than 11%, the French Paris stock market CAC40 index fell nearly 12%, and the German Frankfurt stock market DAX index fell more than 12%. Words like "destruction", "fall" and "disaster" cannot be overstated. As for the a-shares, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.71% on Friday and the GEM index fell 5.7%. The chart shows the decline in global capital markets over the past week. It can be said that A shares have already been hit hard. The good news is that the U.S. stock market experienced a major reversal on Friday. After the opening and a 1,000-point plunge, the US stock market experienced a strong reversal. The Nasdaq eventually turned red. The Dow Jones and S & P 500 Index fell more than 4% from their intraday lows to close at 1.39% and 0.82%, respectively. A shares may be reassuring on Monday. The FTSE A50 index, which is closely related to China's a-shares, fell more than 2% intraday and finally closed 0.36% higher. This can be said to be a comfort to A-share investors. Securities companies did an emergency analysis over the weekend. Zhongtai Securities opened on Monday as follows: No shortage of money, no pessimism. The overseas epidemic is still spreading. Coupled with the weakness of some economic data in the United States, the re-emergence of electoral variables, and the dramatic changes in global economic growth expectations, these are all important driving forces for a sharp decline in global risk assets and a sharp rise in hedge assets. Until the epidemic continues to ferment and proactive policies have not yet been introduced, I am afraid that overseas markets will remain relatively volatile. In particular, the US stock market is very similar to the Chinese real estate market. The loose liquidity and "asset shortage" environment over the past decade has pushed up asset bubbles. Once the downside risk is identified, it will inevitably shift to the “offset” model. However, the policy has been "abducted" by asset prices, and more aggressive monetary and fiscal policies will certainly be rolled out soon. The current market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in March and this year will cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points. As far as the domestic market is concerned, we don't consider it necessary to be too pessimistic. Not only is the domestic epidemic under control, the core factors driving the market are not fundamentals, but loose liquidity and proactive policies. The arrival of the epidemic not only did not break the logic of asset allocation, but strengthened the logic of asset allocation. The rise in technology stocks over the past two months has been driven primarily by liquidity. The drastic fluctuations in overseas markets have shaken the stock market and broken the positive feedback of capital relay. At the same time, with the economic recovery in March, the demand for actual financing increased, and the remaining liquidity in financial markets decreased. The process of purely raising valuations is expected to end. In addition, with the lifting of the ban and the increase in scale, after the current round of rise, technology stocks will enter a period of calibration of performance and valuation. Individual stocks will be split, and high-quality technical white horses will eventually win. 1) It is expected that in March of this year, the calibration period of the technical department's performance and valuation will begin in advance. After the current round of adjustments, from the perspective of valuation, the ratio of the price-earnings ratio of the GEM to the CSI 300 valuation is still close to 5 times, close to the levels of mid-2013 and March 2015. From the performance point of view, considering the impact of the epidemic on the profits of most en companies At the same time, with the economic recovery in March, the demand for actual financing increased, and the remaining liquidity in financial markets decreased. The process of purely raising valuations is expected to end. In addition, with the lifting of the ban and the increase in scale, after the current round of rise, technology stocks will enter a period of calibration of performance and valuation. Individual stocks will be split, and high-quality technical white horses will eventually win. 1) It is expected that in March of this year, the calibration period of the technical department's performance and valuation will begin in advance. After the current round of adjustments, from the perspective of valuation, the ratio of the price-earnings ratio of the GEM to the CSI 300 valuation is still close to 5 times, close to the levels of mid-2013 and March 2015. From the performance point of view, considering the impact of the epidemic on the profits of most en companies At the same time, with the economic recovery in March, the demand for actual financing increased, and the remaining liquidity in financial markets decreased. The process of purely raising valuations is expected to end. In addition, with the lifting of the ban and the increase in scale, after the current round of rise, technology stocks will enter a period of calibration of performance and valuation. Individual stocks will be split, and high-quality technical white horses will eventually win. 1) It is expected that in March of this year, the calibration period of the technical department's performance and valuation will begin in advance. After the current round of adjustments, from the perspective of valuation, the ratio of the price-earnings ratio of the GEM to the CSI 300 valuation is still close to 5 times, close to the levels of mid-2013 and March 2015. From the performance point of view, considering the impact of the epidemic on the profits of most en companies

Depending on the size of the company, SMEs with a market value of less than 10 billion pounds are under the greatest pressure to lift the ban. A shares are still on the way to "rich cows", and the logic of loose liquidity is still valid. After the epidemic subsides, the second round of growth driven by industrial capital inflows and the recovery of fundamentals in the second half of the year will begin in the second quarter. However, the marginal reduction of excess liquidity in the financial market and the consumption of incremental funds in the early period of high temperatures all mean that the A-share market will enter a quiet period and there will be no “V-shaped” reversal after the Spring Festival. For investors, this is a good opportunity to gradually deploy. CITIC Construction Investment: The callback was carried out as scheduled, and positions were increased in three main lines. CITIC Construction's investment strategy team believes that the current valuation is still in the middle. Technology stocks pulled back to release risks. Most industries look at opportunities from the bottom up. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in resumption of work and increase posts on the three main lines. First, supported by the rising trend of industrial prosperity and liquidity policies, the technology industry can increase its position again after market adjustments. This is also the main line of the capital market throughout the year. Therefore, our computer, power and communications industries are actively involved. Second, as companies gradually resume work, the previously compressed consumer demand in the automotive, food and beverage, real estate, household appliances, catering and tourism sectors will rebound again, requiring increased distribution. Third, it benefits from capital market reforms and abundant liquidity in the brokerage industry. 1. How deep will the US stock market adjust? We tend to come to an end. Following subprime loans and European debt, the global debt situation has improved significantly. Judging from the policy responses of central banks (especially the US Federal Reserve), measures to deal with the financial market crisis have achieved significant results in the short to medium term. Considering Powell's statement and the market ’s sharp rise in the Federal Reserve ’s monthly rate cut expectations, and without considering the expansion of the global epidemic, we tend to think that the adjustment of the US stock market is gradually ending. 2. This epidemic will promote a change in style ? Yes, there are three reasons: 1) The domestic epidemic situation is clearly under control, enterprises have resumed work in an orderly manner, the policy is clear, and the tone of the bull market is not far away; 2) In terms of style and price comparison, after the strengthening of scientific and technological strength, the cycle price performance ratio is outstanding. 3) Although the global epidemic has been disrupted, it has increased the likelihood that infrastructure and new infrastructure will exceed expectations, benefiting the cyclical sector. Is the technology market over? Style change, stage restoration and departure. The logic of science and technology is not different in the medium term, but the constraints of short-term valuation make science and technology depend on the amount of incremental funds. On the one hand, the market transaction volume increased this week; on the other hand, the total inflow of ETFs such as 5G and chips exceeded 10 billion yuan, making chip trading and liquidity more healthy. In general, the newly established technology funds and resident wealth and other incremental funds are expected to gradually digest the technology panic. 4. The uptrend continues, technology recommendations remain the same, and the cycle begins in the midstream. 1) Valuation is in the medium term, with low value and high rebound elasticity, such as cement, construction machinery, aviation, etc. 2) High prosperity sub-sectors, such as new energy vehicles, games and information security. The increase in February was larger, shorter and more active than in January. Under the catalysis of external factors of global events, some relatively large adjustments have also occurred. These two adjustments are due to the impact of external events, the impact on risk appetite, and the short-term adjustments brought about by the conclusion of the profit contract. This adjustment is also different from January. After adjustment, the market gradually returned to basic operating logic. At the same time, more attention should be paid to the effects of overseas prevention and control measures, especially the potential impact and interference of overseas markets on a-shares. In this context, the numerator and denominator are both edges of n

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell cited Friday the "evolving risks" the epidemic poses to the U.S. economy, opening the door to possible rate cuts. "The fundamentals of the US economy remain strong," Powell said in a four-sentence statement. "However, the risks to economic activity posed by the new coronavirus epidemic are constantly evolving. The Fed is closely monitoring the development of the situation and its potential impact on the economic outlook. We will make full use of our tools to support the economy." Trump The Fed has been urged to cut interest rates. "I think this is what they should do, not only because of this, but before then," Trump said, referring to the panic caused by the epidemic. "We should have the lowest interest rates; our interest rates are not the lowest now." Trump praised the negative interest rates implemented by some countries, even though such radical policies as Switzerland and Japan have been designed to stimulate long-term weak economic growth. Trump also said that he still has confidence in the US stock market after the S & P 500 index posted its biggest weekly drop since 2008. The benchmark index previously experienced seven consecutive declines. "Market losses will recover," Trump said. "The market is still very strong." China Fund News: Covers all the concerns of the fund news, identifies the QR code, and pays attention to the copyright statement of China Fund News: "China Fund News" has copyright on the original content published on this platform. Reproduction is forbidden without authorization, otherwise legal liability will be pursued. Authorized reprint contact person: Mr. Yu (Tel: 0755-82468670) Wanshui Qianshan will always fall in love, can you click "Watch"?